China’s going green, but is it fast enough?
Ubuntu Thoughts / Article / 6 min read
October 31, 2022
Callum Berry
Social & Media Manager
Social & Media Manager
Over the past few weeks, climate eyes have been fixed firmly on China — the world’s biggest CO2 emitter — as it held its party congress where President Xi Jinping was confirmed as the party leader for a historic third term.
What they were waiting to hear, however, wasn’t news as to whether China is heading towards an even greater authoritarian state, but hints from Xi on the nation's commitment to net zero: the state in which the greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere are balanced by removal out of the atmosphere.
A red state turning green
On one front, they weren’t disappointed. China cemented its commitment to previous climate goals and is even predicted to over-achieve its renewable targets in Xi’s third term in office. However, an undecided growth model, emphasis on energy security and rising geopolitical tensions are also seen as potential challenges to its decarbonisation process.
While some experts hoped that China would peak its carbon dioxide emissions in the next five years, others considered the nation’s overall emissions trajectory “more uncertain” due to the unpredictability of its growth model.
In a statement last year, the president stated that China would achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 after bringing emissions to a peak by the end of this decade. And it seems like the super power sees ‘green’ energy systems as its future. During the congress, Xi confirmed that China will “give priority to environmental protection and promoting green lifestyles, and that the conservation of nature was an essential part of building a modern socialist country.”
While some experts hoped that China would peak its carbon dioxide emissions in the next five years, others considered the nation’s overall emissions trajectory “more uncertain” due to the unpredictability of its growth model.
In a statement last year, the president stated that China would achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 after bringing emissions to a peak by the end of this decade. And it seems like the super power sees ‘green’ energy systems as its future. During the congress, Xi confirmed that China will “give priority to environmental protection and promoting green lifestyles, and that the conservation of nature was an essential part of building a modern socialist country.”
When peaks become problems
Good news, right? Well, on the face of it, yes. Support from the world’s fastest growing economy would definitely be a huge boon to many renewable energy projects who require a lot of funding. Analysts have already said that Beiijing’s emphasis on climate has fuelled a policy push in an attempt to support businesses focused on reducing carbon emissions and renewable energy.
China is leading in a number of industries, from electric vehicles to renewable energy sources. Chinese electric car giant BYD recently launched a fleet of passenger cars in India and Europe, whilst Chinese start up Nio is set to enter the UK market in 2023. Meanwhile, Mingyang Smart Energy (a leader in China for offshore wind power) appears ready to disrupt non-Chinese markets as the market’s three global leaders (Gamesa Renewable Energy, Vestas Wind System and General Electric) are reportedly racking up losses, with two out of three also facing the stress of an imminent restructuring process.
However, although China has said it would peak its emissions before 2030, it has never clarified how much it would peak, or at what level the emissions would top out. Earlier this year, a study from the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) projected that China would peak its CO2 emissions by 2027 at around 12.2 gigatonnes. The IEA estimates that emissions were 11.9 gigatonnes in 2021, however, it remains unclear if these projections considered the impact of China’s recent focus on energy security.
China is leading in a number of industries, from electric vehicles to renewable energy sources. Chinese electric car giant BYD recently launched a fleet of passenger cars in India and Europe, whilst Chinese start up Nio is set to enter the UK market in 2023. Meanwhile, Mingyang Smart Energy (a leader in China for offshore wind power) appears ready to disrupt non-Chinese markets as the market’s three global leaders (Gamesa Renewable Energy, Vestas Wind System and General Electric) are reportedly racking up losses, with two out of three also facing the stress of an imminent restructuring process.
However, although China has said it would peak its emissions before 2030, it has never clarified how much it would peak, or at what level the emissions would top out. Earlier this year, a study from the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) projected that China would peak its CO2 emissions by 2027 at around 12.2 gigatonnes. The IEA estimates that emissions were 11.9 gigatonnes in 2021, however, it remains unclear if these projections considered the impact of China’s recent focus on energy security.
Fair or foul?
Whenever the topic of reducing emissions comes up, it’s quickly followed by a question of fairness. Should China — a country that until relatively recently was considered a ‘developing nation’ — be expected to reduce its emissions in step with its Western counterparts who have been leagues ahead in terms of innovation and technology for so long?
Before its meteoric rise to its current global superpower status, China was a huge but relatively impoverished country. Only in 1978 with a huge amount of economic reform, did its rise begin. Since then, GDP growth has averaged 9% per year.
Whereas European countries and the US have benefited from industrialisation over a protracted period of time, China has adopted a hard and fast model, with an extraordinary amount of growth (most notably in manufacturing) over the past 30 years.
Climate justice is a tricky topic right now, and is likely to feature heavily at the up-coming UN COP27 meeting next month as developing nations typically in the global south ask (yet again) for not only greater support and help from wealthier countries in the global north, but reparations for historic damage too.
China, it could be argued, is historically owed some of those dues. However it has also been one of the largest benefactors of greenhouse emissions — a status it is unlikely going to promote. There’s unfortunate precedence for this, too. Before last year’s COP26 event in Glasgow, the United States showed little enthusiasm towards paying reparations for its status as one of the world’s largest polluters. The country was heavily scrutinised for double standards as President Biden promised to make climate change a key item on his agenda. However, other than signing a statement promising rather vaguely to “increase resources” for loss and damage to poorer countries this past week, very little was actually done.
Before its meteoric rise to its current global superpower status, China was a huge but relatively impoverished country. Only in 1978 with a huge amount of economic reform, did its rise begin. Since then, GDP growth has averaged 9% per year.
Whereas European countries and the US have benefited from industrialisation over a protracted period of time, China has adopted a hard and fast model, with an extraordinary amount of growth (most notably in manufacturing) over the past 30 years.
Climate justice is a tricky topic right now, and is likely to feature heavily at the up-coming UN COP27 meeting next month as developing nations typically in the global south ask (yet again) for not only greater support and help from wealthier countries in the global north, but reparations for historic damage too.
China, it could be argued, is historically owed some of those dues. However it has also been one of the largest benefactors of greenhouse emissions — a status it is unlikely going to promote. There’s unfortunate precedence for this, too. Before last year’s COP26 event in Glasgow, the United States showed little enthusiasm towards paying reparations for its status as one of the world’s largest polluters. The country was heavily scrutinised for double standards as President Biden promised to make climate change a key item on his agenda. However, other than signing a statement promising rather vaguely to “increase resources” for loss and damage to poorer countries this past week, very little was actually done.
Lacking in leadership
As we get closer to COP27 in Egypt, the global economy is struggling. Gas prices in Europe are highly volatile as Russia’s war on Ukraine looks set to rumble on; many countries are facing a ‘cost of living’ crisis at home; and a global recession is seemingly on the ever-looming horizon. Climate agenda — so often seen as critical for a nation’s sovereignty and increasingly, its security — will therefore be competing against a number of other necessities.
And China is no different. The superpower has shown little interest in leading the global climate conversation, preferring instead to focus on becoming even more insular and distancing itself from the West; a move that looks likely to only increase under Xi’s third term in power.
Kate Logan of the Asia Society Policy Institute sees this as a trend that could continue for some time. “In the 2017 previous work report, we saw a mention of China wanting to lead globally in terms of guiding international cooperation and addressing climate change,” she said. “That has now disappeared. We see no active measures about China wanting to set the pace and the tone on international climate.”
I guess the good news is that despite its inward focus, China’s investment in green innovation will no doubt trickle out around the globe. For a nation notorious for trying to keep information secret, it also has huge financial interests outside its borders that warrant a more open approach. Four Chinese companies recently reached the final round of bidding to become a commercial partner in Bolivia — the world’s largest reserves of lithium.
E3G climate diplomacy researcher Belinda Schäpe said adapting to climate change has “really gained importance” in China, with the government’s new adaptation strategy being “much more ambitious” than the previous version. And these improvements are expected to continue — especially after China experienced the longest and strongest heat wave on record this summer.
Could these climate challenges at home be the driving force behind a next wave of green investment? It’s a small silver lining for a planet on the brink of collapse, however right now, we’ll take anything we can get.
And China is no different. The superpower has shown little interest in leading the global climate conversation, preferring instead to focus on becoming even more insular and distancing itself from the West; a move that looks likely to only increase under Xi’s third term in power.
Kate Logan of the Asia Society Policy Institute sees this as a trend that could continue for some time. “In the 2017 previous work report, we saw a mention of China wanting to lead globally in terms of guiding international cooperation and addressing climate change,” she said. “That has now disappeared. We see no active measures about China wanting to set the pace and the tone on international climate.”
I guess the good news is that despite its inward focus, China’s investment in green innovation will no doubt trickle out around the globe. For a nation notorious for trying to keep information secret, it also has huge financial interests outside its borders that warrant a more open approach. Four Chinese companies recently reached the final round of bidding to become a commercial partner in Bolivia — the world’s largest reserves of lithium.
E3G climate diplomacy researcher Belinda Schäpe said adapting to climate change has “really gained importance” in China, with the government’s new adaptation strategy being “much more ambitious” than the previous version. And these improvements are expected to continue — especially after China experienced the longest and strongest heat wave on record this summer.
Could these climate challenges at home be the driving force behind a next wave of green investment? It’s a small silver lining for a planet on the brink of collapse, however right now, we’ll take anything we can get.
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We appreciate that all life on earth is under threat, so we’re using the resources we have—our business, our investments, our voice and our imaginations—to do something about it. Reducing the negative impact on people and the planet.
If you're looking to make a change in how you market your business, we'd love to chat. Find out more.
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